Through the first four games of ACC play Florida State was considered almost a lock to make the NCAA Tournament in March. Since then however, Florida State has lost four of its last five, two of which were double-digit losses. Now what once was a near certainty is in doubt.
Florida State’s current RPI has the Seminoles at 38. This is due to the lack of bad losses. None of Florida State’s losses have come to teams currently over 70 in the RPI rankings. The Seminoles do have two top 30 wins over No. 11 Umass and No. 28 VCU.
In order for Florida State to make the Tournament, one of the following needs to happen:
1. Win six of the last nine regular season games and win at least one in the ACC tournament.
2. Win five of the last nine regular season games including a win over Syracuse, North Carolina, or Pittsburgh.
3. Win the ACC Tournament.
The chances of the last two are not very good. Florida State does not match up well with any of the three teams listed in option two and Florida State would most likely have to beat three of Duke, Syracuse, Pitt, and Virginia in order to win the ACC tournament.
Option one is still in play, however, and would leave Florida State at 19-10 in the regular season and 10-8 in the ACC. This would put them right on the bubble for getting in. Winning one game in the ACC tournament should push them into the Tournament.
Let’s look at the seven games that Florida State needs to win.
1. Virginia Tech: The Hokies are currently 8-13 and 1-8 in ACC play. They are No. 215 in the current RPI. They have lost 8 straight games. Their best win of the season was a one point overtime victory over Miami. Should be a Florida State win.
2. At Maryland: Maryland sits at 13-9 and 5-4 in ACC play. They are No. 72 in the current RPI. Maryland has won three of their last five including the last two versus Miami and Virginia Tech. Florida State beat them at home by 24 in January. Should be a Florida State win.
3. Miami: The Hurricanes are currently 11-10 and 2-6 in ACC play. They are currently No. 91 in the RPI. Miami has lost three of their last 5 games. Their best win of the season is against North Carolina. Florida State beat them by ten at Miami in early January. Should be a Florida State win.
4. At Wake Forest: Wake is currently 14-8 and 4-5 in the ACC. They are No. 77 in the current RPI. Wake has lost three of their last five and play at Duke and at NC State before playing Florida State. Their best win of the season was against North Carolina at the beginning of January. Toss up.
5. Georgia Tech: The Yellow Jackets are currently 12-10 and 3-6 in the ACC. They are No. 134 in the current RPI. Georgia Tech has lost four of its last six games, but won at Wake on Saturday. Their best win of the season is against Notre Dame. Should be a Florida State win.
6. At Boston College: Boston College is currently 6-15 and 2-6 in the ACC. They are No. 174 in the current RPI. They have lost four of their last five and both ACC wins have come against 8-13 Virginia Tech. Should be a Florida State win.
7. ACC Tournament: Finishing 10-8 in the ACC would put Florida State in the 6-8 range in the ACC Tournament. This would put Florida State up against any number of schools, but all ones that Florida State should have at least one win against.
The Seminoles can’t afford to drop any of the seven games listed above. If that happens expect Florida State to end up in the NIT. If they do manage to win those six games and the ACC game I would expect Florida State to end up around an 11 or 12 seed in the NCAA tournament.